FZAK80 PAFC 090231
ICEAFC

SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
530 PM AKST MONDAY FEBRUARY 8 2010

FORECAST VALID...SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13 2010 

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...HIGH TO MODERATE...LOWER FOR BRISTOL BAY AREA. 

THE FEBRUARY YEAR GROUP AND OUTLOOK FOLLOW THE FORECASTS.

SYNOPSIS...A COMPLEX LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN BERING SEA WEDNESDAY AND DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY. A SERIES OF
STRONG NORTH PACIFIC LOWS WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. 

-ARCTIC OCEAN-
-BEAUFORT SEA-
-CHUKCHI SEA-

PKZ510-EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ500-WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ245-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
PKZ240-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
PKZ235-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
PKZ230-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
PKZ225-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
PKZ220-WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
PKZ215-KOTZEBUE SOUND-
PKZ210-DALL POINT TO WALES-
PKZ200-NORTON SOUND-

ICE COVERED.

-BERING SEA- 

PKZ185-ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
PKZ180-SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT-
PKZ165-PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
PKZ160-BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN-

THE ICE EDGE LIES FROM 30 NM SOUTHWEST OF PORT MOLLER TO 56.6N 160.8W
TO 56.6N 164.5W TO 56.4N 166.2W TO 56.3N 166.8W TO 56.7N 169.4W TO
57.2N 170.1W TO 57.3N 171.6W TO 58.3N 173.9W TO 59.8N 176.9W TO 60.5N
178W TO 60.8N 179.7E TO 61.6N 176.9E TO 59.7N 171E AND CONTINUES
ALONG THE KAMCHATKA COAST. THE EDGE IS MAINLY 2 TO 5 TENTHS YOUNG
...NEW AND FIRST YEAR THIN ICE IN STRIPS. 

UP TO 5 TENTHS NEW ICE REMAINS IN THE BAYS ALONG THE BERING SIDE OF
THE ALASKAN PENINSULA SOUTH OF THE MAIN ICE EDGE. 

DETAILED ICE EDGE POSITION 165W TO 180.

56.6N    165W
56.4N    166W
56.4N    167W
56.7N    168W
56.6N    169W
57.2N    170W
57.3N    171W
57.4N    172W
57.8N    173W
58.4N    174W
59.0N    175W
59.5N    176W
60.2N    177W
60.5N    178W
60.9N    179W
60.8N    180

FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY...EAST OF 165W...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL TURN NORTHERLY BY SATURDAY. ICE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE ALASKAN
PENINSULA AS FAR NORTH AS PORT HEIDEN. THE ICE EDGE WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTH 10 TO 15 NM. 

165W TO 171W...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LATE
THURSDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST THEN NORTHEAST AND FINALLY
TURN NORTHERLY SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE ICE EDGE WILL MOVE 25 TO 30 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST
WITH MOST OF THE ADVANCE TAKING PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
THEN AGAIN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  

WEST OF 171W AND WITHIN U.S. WATERS...STRONG NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD. THE ICE EDGE
WILL MOVE 45 TO 55 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST. 

PKZ140-COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY-
PKZ141-KACHEMAK BAY-
PKZ130-BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS-

COOK INLET ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...MODERATE.  

THE THE ICE EDGE LIES ACROSS THE INLET NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
KALGIN ISLAND.   

1 TO 3 TENTHS NEW ICE LIES ALONG THE WESTERN COAST TO KAMISHAK BAY. 
6 TO 9 TENTHS NEW AND YOUNG ICE LIES IN KAMISHAK BAY.  

FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LOWS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA
WILL DRAW THE ICE TOWARD THE EASTERN SHORES OVER THE WEEKEND. STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE THE ICE AWAY FROM
THE EAST SHORES AND MOVE THICKER ICE INTO THE LOWER INLET. 

KCOLE 2010

$$

...FEBRUARY 2010 YEAR GROUP ANALYSIS AND OUTLOOK...

THE YEAR GROUP FOR FEBRUARY IS 1998 BASED ON SEA ICE EXTENT AND
WEATHER CONDITIONS. 1998 WAS SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN 2010 DUE IN PART TO
A STRONGER MEAN HIGH POSITION OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA. BOTH 1998 AND
2010 ARE EL NINO YEARS.  THE EL NINO IN 1998 DECREASED THROUGH THE
SPRING WHICH IS ALSO THE FORECAST FOR EL NINO CONDITIONS IN 2010. 

OUTLOOK...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE AND RETREAT NEAR THE PRIBILOFS
THROUGH THE THIRD WEEK IN FEBRUARY.  MOST ICE WILL BE OUT OF BRISTOL
BAY AROUND MARCH 10TH. MOST ICE WILL BE OUT OF KUSKOKWIM BAY BY MARCH
24TH WITH THE AREA ICE FREE BY APRIL 10TH. FAST ICE ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST WILL ERODE FASTER THAN THE ADJACENT SEA ICE. 

KCOLE 2010

$$